April 07: Week 4 - New Jack City, BC, 3M (MMM), Pookie, Bally's (BFT), JMJ, AAPL, DNDN, and NTRI


Monday - April 23rd, 2007

Smoking sucks but it pays with Big Mo'
Say what you want about tobacco and it's evils, but as shareholders, Altria Group Inc. (MO) has been wonderful stewards of our dollars. There is no doubt in Todd Sullivan's (ValuePlays) mind that "enhance shareholder value" means a couple of things - Increase in the Dividend and international operations will be spun off. Despite the results on the conference call today shares of MO are down only 1%, don't be fooled. Altria is the single best performer in the history of the US stock market. Read the Toddster's take...

New Jack City with Bally's (BFT) - Pookie's crack pipe dream
Remember Bally's (BFT) and all the fun we've had at their expense. We told you two weeks ago why not gamble with Bally's since they are trading under 70 Cents a share?
Pipe dream or not, shares are up 14% today. Easy Ice on ol' Pookie there, he couldn't help it, he just couldn't put the pipe down. Which goes to show you, drugs and crime don't pay, so stay cool, stay in school.

So take the money and run on BFT, sure why not? But in at 70 cents, I say let it ride baby. The stock is down 90% in the last year, that's 90%! It's a risky play Masters but it's always fun to roll the dice on lucky no. 7. Personally, I'd rather be a New Jack Hustler.
See our mentions on Microvision (MVIS) or Dendreon (DNDN) before they exploded.

Looks like Todd S. was right - Peabody Energy (BTU) got an upgrade today and shares are up 5%. A.G. Edwards upgraded Peabody today on news that Arch Coal's profit tumbled but beat analysts' expectations. A.G. is now saying "Buy" and set a price target of $55, which implies an upside of 18.2%
David Khani, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, reiterated his "Outperform" rating on Peabody Energy and raised his price target from $70 to $73, which implies an upside of 56.8%. Khani called the supply and demand fundamentals for coal positive, although he warned that a 30% run-up in shares of coal miners since mid-January reflects the sector's volatility. It's all about coal people.

Now that Mathstar (MATH) hit a new 52-week low today - again. Maybe they will consider selling the Wagon Queen Family Truckster to raise cash. I know we're jerks but it's fun.

Apple, Apple, Apple - Can someone write just one more article on AAPL?
Every finance TV channel and website can't mention Apple, Inc. (AAPL) enough before they report earnings this Wednesday on April 25th. So with shares pushing $93 and change everyone is placing their bets, just as many short and just as many long. You don't need to be reminded of their technologies and those clever but now tiring Apple Ads that you see every 5 seconds on TV and the net. It appears that Apple will have a good quarter and possibly a few more, but then what? Today Am Tech/JSA Research reiterated their "Buy" rating and raised their target price from $118 to $145.
Our own Eric C. talked about how Apple could tank and crash hard last week - what if he's right? All it takes is one bad earnings call, so with the other 10,000 stocks you could be holding, why risk it on an earnings call?
Chances are the bulls are going to win on Wednesday's call but the big picture remains - how long can AAPL keep the momentum? So what do you think America, is it worth it to place your bet on Apple? Article at BloggingStocks - Short Apple here? Yeah, right....

Tuesday - April 24th, 2007

NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI) reports Q1 07 tomorrow after the close and with shares trading $20 below the 52-week high, bargain shoppers are hoping for a solid performance.
Q1 is a big quarter for NTRI and all the other diet and gym companies that trade publicly. Every year, people flock to the gyms and begin diets and in doing so, shell out all kinds of money because - "this is the year they are going to get back in shape". So when NutriSystem has all the meals ready for you and you can just eat and lose weight, it's no doubt they are a popular solution for weight loss. If Dan Marino lost 22 pounds after eating one to many cheeseburgers, so can you!

There is a ton of weight riding on this quarter for NTRI, the stock has fallen 18% in the last six months.
Earlier this month (April 10th) First Albany reiterated their "Buy" rating on Nutrisystem and raised their target price from $57 to $70 a share. So what do you think America, think everyone is still eating?

Back in March we told you:
American Railcar Industries (ARII) + The Icahns = RUN D.M.C. (The King of Rock).
ARII is up 10.9% since our recommendation and with everyone drunk on railroads after Warren Buffet declared them "an investment", everyone has been buying and putting money into the railroads stocks. American Railcar services all the railcars my friends and they report earnings on May 2nd.

Get on board Masters and Rock the house with Devastating-Mic-Control.


 Wednesday - April 25th, 2007

On deck to report earnings tomorrow at 11AM is Exxon Mobil (XOM).
Today XOM raised its second quarter dividend by 3 cents, or 9.4% to 35 cents. I guess they were so excited about it, they couldn't wait for tomorrow's call?
This is good news for shareholders of the world's largest publicly traded company.
Prior to the increase, Exxon said it has raised its per-share dividend by nearly 40% over the past five years.
So as long as you own shares before May 14th, you'll get that dividend.
So here's the kicker - BP reported earnings yesterday and it was not pretty. They cited reduced production, higher costs, and lower oil prices - so could XOM have the same pains?
Yes these companies are going to make a fortune this summer, but this past quarter?
Your best bet is to sell XOM before the call and if it drops, pick it back up in time before May 14th and get that dividend.
BP Plc, Europe's second-largest oil company, said first-quarter profit fell 17%. The price drop contributed to a 1.5% decline in profit for Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY), the fourth-largest U.S. oil company. Play it smart Masters, cash out XOM now and buy back again next week.

Remember what we said about Bally's (BFT) last week, the whole 70 cents comment? The stock is now at $1.05 a share and up 15% today.
1-2-shabadoo people.
Bally's said today it agreed to sell its 16 Toronto properties to Extreme Fitness Inc. and Good Life Fitness Centres Inc. The yard sale begins.

Thursday - April 26th, 2007

The market is barley trading higher today as strong profit reports from names like Apple Inc. (APPL) and 3M Corp. (MMM) failed to galvanize Wall Street a day after the Dow Jones industrials crossed the 13,000 mark. You know how we feel about 3M, the fools that tossed that stock in the wood chipper were just wrong to bet against Post-It Notes.
Despite blowing through Wall Street estimates with surprise first-quarter strength in internal and foreign sales, 3M Co.'s CEO Thursday shied from lifting the company's full-year profit forecast, saying he "just wanted to get another piece of data" before tweaking views.
Revenue at the St. Paul, Minn. manufacturer swelled 6.1% in the three months ended March 31 to $5.94 billion, beating forecasts of $5.68 billion, as polled by Thomson Financial.
Proving that potato pancakes in the mid-west are worth banking on.
3M is the midst of expanding or building 19 factories around the world in an effort to expand its ability to roll out more of the office supplies, construction materials and technology products that support sales growth.
The stock is up 4% today, 1-2-shabadoo people.

So those of you that put your 3M shares in the wood chipper, you can betcha' Marge Gunderson will have a word of two fer ya.
Marge Gunderson: So that was Mrs. Lundegaard on the floor in there. And I guess that was your accomplice in the wood chipper. And those three people in Brainerd. And for what? For a little bit of money. There's more to life than a little money, you know. Don't you know that? And here ya are, and it's a beautiful day. Well, I just don't understand it.

Friday - April 27th, 2007

It's finally Friday and Miller time:

What a week and we hope you all took some profits after what could have been the best week in the market in the last 5 years.
One of our favorite companies the Brunswick Corp. (BC), reported a 32% drop in first-quarter earnings yesterday but the decline was less than expected and its stock surged 9%. Today shares are a bit down at $33 and change but still, that's not bad for largest maker of recreational boats and marine engines.
Let's not forget they also make some of the best bowling balls ever. The kind our friend The Dude can appreciate.

However the Bowling & Billiards segment didn't do so hot this quarter. That segment is comprised of the Brunswick retail bowling centers; bowling equipment and products; and billiards, Air Hockey and foosball tables. Bowling & Billiards sales in the first quarter of 2007 totaled $105.8 million, down from $114.7 million in the year-ago quarter. Operating earnings were $8.3 million in the first quarter versus $12.8 million in the year-ago quarter.
Still, the Dude loves bowling.