Buy Amazon (AMZN) just for the Kindle?

Believe it or not but Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) shares are trading in the $80 range, something not seen since before the 'bubble burst' back when we partied like it was 1999.   Amazon's e-book solution the Kindle is rocking the industry so should you buy shares before the July Q2 earnings call?

Amazon might not be making any money with its Kindle e-book reader, but that's not dampening the enthusiasm of the device's most outspoken evangelist.

Addressing shareholders at the company's annual meeting last Friday, CEO Jeff Bezos gave an impassioned and lengthy pitch for the Kindle, shrugging off concerns that the device is still in the "investment phase."

"One of our competitive advantages at Amazon is that we are willing to plant seeds -- if we think the seed is important -- and nurture it for a long time," Bezos said. "Everything worthwhile that we've done, we've had to invest in for some number of years, so I doubt this will be any different."

As in previous company earnings reports, Bezos declined to share any sales figures about the device. But he did say that e-book purchases amount to six percent of the overall sales for the 125,000 titles that Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) offers for the Kindle.

The online retailer cut the Kindle's price by $40 to $359 on Tuesday but still won't say how many have sold. The company also refuses to divulge the total number of e-books it has sold.

Here's some of the recent analyst take on AMZN:

22-May-08 Initiated William Blair Mkt Perform
24-Apr-08 Reiterated McAdams,Wright,Ragen Hold $80 → $76
24-Apr-08 Reiterated Canaccord Adams Buy $78 → $93
18-Mar-08 Initiated Canaccord Adams Buy $78
31-Jan-08 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $113 → $100

 

 

 

So do you take the risk on AMZN and buy shares before July?

Masters, there are better stocks to play out there besides Amazon.  Why take the risk on a stock that is already riding high and should the short position start to pick up, watch out for the volatility.

Amazon’s high shareholder concentration, a large 10% short interest and uncertainty over the company’s underlying value produces enormous trading volatility. The stock was up 24% in one day in July 2007.

Be careful playing this stock, should the Kindle pick up more steam, the shorts will back off and AMZN shares could hit $100.

Disclaimer: No positions in AMZN.

MASTERY

 

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