Times are tough so go with Wal-Mart

Gas over $4 a gallon, grocery prices through the roof, stagflation, where does it end?  Calgon take me away?  Nope, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) to the rescue. Even rich people will be heading their to buy milk, movies, and even a gun or two to protect themselves from poor people.  Wal-Mart's slogan, "Save Money. Live Better" makes sense to all Americans.

Had you bet the farm on Wal-Mart at the start of the year you would be up 18%.  Shares of WMT now sit $3 away from their 52-week high, the range has been $42.09 to $59.09 over the last year.  With all the recent activity in the market moving stocks down, Wal-Mart has shares have fallen just under 3% since mid-May.  Wal-Mart pays a great quarterly dividend (now 24 cents) and was knocked down a bit after their Q1 2008 report on May 13th.

Q1 2008 profits rose 6.9 percent, but the world's largest retailer offered a guarded outlook as consumers wrestle with higher energy and food costs.

Higher sales helped Wal-Mart beat Wall Street's expectations, which President and CEO Lee Scott attributed to strategy begun two years ago to make inventory management more efficient and improve customer service.

"There are still uncertainties during the rest of the year," Scott said in a recorded call for investors. "The economy is playing a critical factor in 2008."

Scott and other executives said Wal-Mart is in a good position to meet customers' needs in the down economy and later, when there is a rebound.

Wal-Mart earned $3.02 billion, or 76 cents per share, in the three months ended April 30, up from $2.83 billion, or 68 cents per share, a year earlier.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had projected earnings of 75 cents per share.

Wal-Mart Chief Financial Officer Tom Schoewe said the company expects second-quarter sales in stores open at least a year to be between flat and up 2 percent. He said the company expects to earn between 78 cents per share and 81 cents per share. Wal-Mart has not been able to gauge how much of an impact the federal tax rebate checks will have on shoppers, Schoewe said.

The company had overall revenue of $95.30 billion, up 10.3 percent from $86.41 billion in the prior year. Net sales excluding membership fees rose to $94.1 billion from $85.4 billion a year ago.

Analysts projected revenue of $93.47 billion for the quarter.

Wal-Mart is concerned about fuel prices eating into their bottom line, but which retailer and American for that part that isn't upset about the cost of gasoline?

Everyone is taking it in the shorts with $4 gas, there's no way around it.  Recent analyst activity has been positive with Wal-Mart, Wall Street expects investors to continue to benefit: 

02-May-08 Upgrade DA Davidson Neutral → Buy $30 → $38
02-Apr-08 Reiterated Lehman Brothers Overweight $55 → $65
21-Feb-08 Reiterated Citigroup Buy $53 → $57
20-Feb-08 Reiterated Deutsche Securities Buy $51 → $61
20-Feb-08 Downgrade BMO Capital Markets Outperform → Market Perform

A quick look at the chart and you can't argue with Wal-Mart's performance: 

 

The Masters expect Wal-Mart investors to continue to benefit throughout 2008.  Americans all need to save money and get the best bang for their buck, thus, we will all head to Wal-Mart -- it's that simple. 

Disclaimer: No positions in WMT.

MASTERY

 

 

 

 

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