GOGO shares decline overdone?


Gogo Inc was down 40% this morning, is it that bad?

Why is Gogo Inc (GOGO) down 40% this morning? That would be that American Airlines is threatning to pull Gogo's inflight Wi-Fi internet service from its 200 planes. Gogo has almost 11,000 planes fitted worldwide, so doesn't a measly 200 seem overdone?

Who could do a better job than Gogo? That would be ViaSat (VSAT). American wants to give VSAT a try and is going to allow Gogo to compete side by side. Only problem is that VSAT is used by the modern airlines of this past decade, JetBlue (JBLU) and Virgin American (VA). Recall this gem of a press statement last Sept. from Virgin:


New High-Speed ViaSat Satellite WiFi Launches this Month on Virgin America, Allowing Guests to Stream Video in the Air – Just Like at Home

 San Francisco – September 29, 2015 – Today, Netflix, the world’s leading Internet TV network, and Virgin America, low-fare, upscale airline known for offering next generation entertainment and connectivity, announced they are joining forces to provide complimentary in-flight WiFi access that allows new and existing Netflix members to enjoy the entire Netflix catalog of films and award-winning shows. Beginning today, Netflix users onboard Virgin America’s new ViaSat WiFi-equipped aircraft will be able to stream the best programming available in the skies, including the hit series House of Cards and Orange Is The New Black, to their phones, tablets, and laptops at no cost through March 2, 2016*. The experience is made possible by Virgin America’s recent connectivity partnership with ViaSat, which brings significantly faster WiFi to the airline’s 10 new airbus A320 aircraft being delivered from fall 2015 to mid-2016. In addition to offering free streaming through its new ViaSat WiFi network, as of next month, Virgin America will also offer House of Cards seasons 1-3 for free on the airline’s recently upgraded Red® touch-screen seatback in-flight entertainment platform – so travelers can binge-watch through their own devices or their seatback.

Year-to-Date VSAT shares are up 12% while GOGO is down 48%. Yikes.  Today's movement in GOGO is all based on American Airlines  declaratory judgment action last week against Gogo. American can get rid of GOGO if a competitor (i.e. VSAT) can "materially improve upon Gogo’s service". Gogo is allowed to submit a competing proposal which they will do using their satellite technology, 2Ku. “We believe that 2Ku is the best performing technology in the market and look forward to discussing our offer with American,” Gogo said.

Don't forget about Global Eagle Entertainment Inc. (ENT). ENT is the 3rd big player in the internet of the sky, the provide Wi-Fi Internet connectivity through Ku-band satellite transmissions.
2Ku vs. Ku-Band. GOGO vs. VSAT vs. ENT. Who will win?
Gogo has been the leader for almost a decade of the internet of the sky. Now it's got some real competition and it's share price is tanking 40% on news that they might lose one airline.  One people.  Not all of them.
MASTERY Bottom Line (Flying Kick Style)

GOGO is falling hard but a 40% drop is too much. Even if VSAT comes out as the winner not everyone is going to jump ship to them. GOGO at an overnight 40% discount sounds tempting.
VSAT ViaSat Inc. daily Stock Chart
GOGO Gogo Inc. daily Stock Chart
ENT Global Eagle Entertainment Inc. daily Stock Chart