Should have Bought GameStop Corp. (GME) on Monday

GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) is a stock/company the Masters have been watching closely lately, since March the stock has recovered from the low $20 range, made it back up the low $30's and fumbled this week.  However that was the time to buy, since Monday GME shares are up 12% and the rally may just be getting started.

Its hard to take a leap of faith and buy any stock these days after its jumped 40% in the last month, then add to it GameStop is a specialty retailer, it makes it even more difficult to justify picking up shares.  Americans aren't spending money, but GameStop isn't your typical retailer, rather they have been bucking the trend and their unique stores make it all worth it just setting foot in the door.  If its not the local GameStop tournaments, the chance to test out the latest game consoles or asking their staff nerdy questions that only gamers can appreciate, then trading in games and getting store credit will win you over if you think they have nothing to offer.

Currently GameStop is running the Trade in 3 games, get 10% extra credit, Trade in 4 games, get 20% extra credit, Trade in 5 or more games, get 30% extra trade-in credit.  This runs until 4/26 but they always have a very similar offer going and its what brings many gamers into their stores.  Let's face it, GameStop is an experience, much like the fans of Starbucks (SBUX) or Nordstrom (JWN), you go there because you like it, any many of us do.

Back to why GameStop has been gaining market share, the demand for hardware and software buoyed GameStop fourth quarter results, which exceeded analysts estimates, and its earnings guidance for the first quarter of this year – at 40 cents to 42 cents per share – which surpassed the analysts’ average forecast of 39 cents.

The retailer expects new video game software sales to gain between five and 10 percent in 2009 and estimates its result for the year will include revenue growth between 10 percent and 12 percent, comparable store sales growth of four percent to six percent and diluted earnings per share growth of 18 percent to 22 percent.

Sounds great right? So what could stop GameStop from raking in more cash, increasing market share and watching GME shares rise?

Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) that's who.

Amazon continues to expand the number of product categories it offers to consumers. It recently challenged GameStop Corp. (GME) by introducing a used-game trade-in program. Amazon is also girding for battle with eBay's (EBAY)dominant PayPal online-payment service, where eBay has said its greatest growth potential rests. Amazon in February unveiled a new version of it Kindle e-book reader.  Super, but this article isn't a plug for Amazon, its for GameStop.

Analysts say that online retailer Amazon's recent entry into the used game market can coexist peacefully with GameStop's share, but Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian says to expect other retailers to try and jump on board, too.

"According to our industry checks, one large consumer electronics retail chain is rekindling efforts to sell used video games, while another general merchandise 'big box' store is in trials to buy back games in exchange for store credit," says Sebastian.

Sebastian says that the sector, which he values at about $2 billion annually in North America, is seeing increased competition, and new challenges to current dominance on the part of GameStop, GameCrazy and eBay. With nearly 50 percent gross margins according to the analyst, it's an attractive profitability proposition for retailers.

But with high barriers to entry in building a successful second-hand business including inventory balance and pricing challenges, Sebastian doesn't expect anyone to genuinely threaten GameStop's market share any time soon, suggesting that any impact to the leading retailer will take the shape of share price response to news headlines rather than actual lost revenue.

The latest analyst action on GME:

Fellow Masters, if anything, GameStop deserves to be added to your watch list, should this stock pull back, even the Masters will bite.  Maybe GME has bottomed, however anything can fall in the market, and if that's the case, its Game on for GameStop.

Disclaimer: No positions in any of the securities mentioned in this publication.