Making sense of Northwest Biotherapeutics' (NWBO.OB) brain cancer vaccine

Fresh off their one-for fifteen reverse stock split which was previously announced and took effect on June 19, 2007, Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO.OB) is the big winner today. Their stock is up 249% today on news that they received approval for its therapeutic brain cancer vaccine, DCVax-Brain, in Switzerland and closed at $7.33 a share.

You can bet their board of directors is doing the happy dance, shares of Northwest Biotherapeutics have traded between $.75 to $8.25 over the last 52 weeks.

So the question becomes, will this company's stock continue to be a good investment past today?

The Swiss Institute of Public Health has authorized the use of DCVax-Brain, the first commercially available vaccine for this type of cancer. It should be on the market in the third quarter of this year. In trials, DCVax-Brain has been shown to delay disease recurrence in newly diagnosed patients by nearly threefold, and to more than double the survival time. That's amazing and considering the therapy does not cause the debilitating side-effects associated with treatments such as chemotherapy, Northwest Biotherapeutics appears to have a winner on its hands.

Brain Cancer 101 - Current treatments for brain cancer are limited and newly diagnosed patients will survive, on average, about 15 months. You don't have to know a ton about it and if it was you that came down with it, wouldn't you want to do everything and anything to continue to live?

You damn right you would.

Wall Street analysts believe that although the vaccine has only been approved in Switzerland, patients from all over Europe are likely to travel for treatment. Just imagine what's going to happen across the rest of the world, people are going to flock to Switzerland for treatment like they did in the 80's to buy Swatch watches.

Now that Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO.OB) has done it's reverse stock split, you can take them more serious despite being a OTC BB stock. Don't get me wrong, I hate OTC stocks and the whole penny stock scam/craze. I'd rather bet on sports or place a bet on Frank Dux returning to the Kumite than buy OTC BB stocks.

But Northwest Bio. has an amazing product, and until shares hit that 52-week high, I'll be buying. Now however is not to the time to buy shares, let it cool down a bit, hopefully Cramer won't mention it on his show because if he does, the stock will be over inflated and never be worth the risk. However, there are a few items that I don't like, try not filling an annual report since 2004. Not a good sign. It's tough to evaluate the true "health" of the company, we know they have a stellar drug on their hands, but can they make it worth investing in their company stock?

At this point my fellow Masters, I don't want to speculate if Northwest Biotherapeutics can turn water into wine and become a stock worth investing your money and returning to the NASDAQ. The reverse stock split and selling DCVax-Brain this year is a huge plus for getting Northwest Biotherapeutics on the right track, but it may not be enough.

However, using my full Jedi mind power for stock market speculation, I'm seeing Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO.OB) get to $10 by October. They have a drug like no other in the world, and I'm sure the sufferers of brain cancer are more excited then anyone making a few grand from the stock today. It's a huge win people, and perhaps worth the risk if the company can provide a stronger guidance.

Article written by: Eric Cheshier
Article posted on: July 9th 2007

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Disclaimer: The Author does not own any shares or positions in any of the securities mentioned in this publication.