Play the played out: Potash Corp (POT)

The time to buy Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT) was Monday when it was under $160 a share, today its already back up to $175.  After making its run to $240 a share in June, Potash Corp. has come crashing back down to reality.  But the fundamentals still support strong potash prices, so what to do?

Commodities, the bubble has burst.

All the wonderful commodity related stocks are falling like rocks thanks to a strong and uplifting U.S. Dollar, again see our stories:

August 5th - Come on U.S. Dollar, Come on PowerShares US Dollar (UUP)

Yesterday, Aug 12th - Oil Down go Long on the Dollar (UUP)

As the U.S. dollar rallies and you should be playing the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish (AMEX:UUP), defensive areas of the market are coming to the fore.

But there are plenty of talking and heads and analysts that believe potash prices are still going to run.

However the latest news of the nearly 500 Potash employees on strike could really hurt the stock and company.

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Potash's Cory mine has stopped due to a strike that began last week, and no talks with the union are scheduled, Potash Corp, the world's largest fertilizer producer, said on Monday.

The strike -- which started after mediated talks with the United Steelworkers union broke off last Thursday -- also affects Potash's Patience Lake and Allan mines. However, both are currently closed for maintenance.

Combined, the mines account for 30 percent of the company's total output and about 6 percent of global capacity, and the strike has raised concerns of more shortages and higher prices in a fertilizer market that is already tight.

Potash is one of three nutrients farmers apply to their soil to boost crop yields.

Some minor maintenance work has continued and expansion work at Patience Lake is going on at a reduced rate, but all output has ceased, spokesman Bill Johnson said in an email.

"Cory is not currently running, and we are currently assessing our plans going forward regarding that facility," he said.

Wages have been the major issue in the dispute.

Talks collapsed last week after the company refused to change an offer that had been rejected by the 500 workers at the three mines in Saskatchewan, the union says.

The company has said the offer rejected by workers would be the richest in the potash industry.

The previous contract expired at the end of April, and the workers have been in a legal strike position since late July.

Union official Roger Falconer said the USW was trying to stop the remaining expansion work at the mines.

"What we're trying to do is to talk to the contractors on an individual basis. We're trying to delay them as long as we can from going on the property," he said.

Strike crap aside Masters, the analysts covering POT have high hopes and big expecations, just take a look at some of the recent target prices, in the $300 range for crying out loud.

If any of these guys are right about the stock, there is much to be gained, so do you bet with Wall Street or with the Shorts? 

Long term, the analysts are going to win.

Discliamer: No positions in POT.

SOURCE: http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSN1144274020080811